Demographic Change

Carter and Parker, 2009, predict the following population trends within Africa between the years 2000-2050.

-          Population growth increases 154% (under the UN variant).

-          Urban population growth increases 320%.

-          Water demand will increase by between 154% and 200%.

-          Population density increase from 22-66 persons per km².

The growth of water demand is the product of multiple influencing factors. The increase in population, and also the increase in per capita water consumption in order to “enhance hygiene and health” (Carter and Parker, 2009), caused by the improving of hygiene behavioural knowledge.

Population density has a direct effect on disease transmission. Nine African cities currently reside in the top 100 ranked by population densities. Lagos for instance has a population density of over 18,000 per km², heaping pressure on water and sanitation services. Slums are a product of rapid urbanisation and see areas with the highest population densities and poorest sanitation and water quality. WHO claims that 50% of Nigeria’s population lacks access to clean water and proper sanitation. Poor management schemes of an increasing population leads to occurrences such as the 2009 cholera outbreak within Nigeria that infected 40,000 killing 1500. 

In order to reduce waterborne disease, efforts to increase sanitation and water quality should be focused on these poorly facilitated areas of high density.